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韓劍: RCEP及亞太區域貿易協定整合——基于協定文本的量化研究

發布時間: 2021-08-02

        當今世界正面臨百年未有之大變局,全球經貿規則面臨重構,各主要經濟體紛紛在新一輪規則重構中搶占話語權和主導權。2020年11月,RCEP成功簽署標志著目前全球體量最大的自貿區正式形成,其生效將進一步打破亞洲區域貿易壁壘,打通區域內生產網絡,形成統一、穩定的市場。同時,RCEP承認參與國經濟與文化上的異質性,尋求多樣性與高標準之間的平衡,主張通過強化區域內部合作來應對貿易保護主義,倡導“開放地區主義”,維護和擴大全球化成果。在新冠肺炎疫情對全球經濟造成巨大沖擊的背景下,RCEP將有力提振各方對經濟增長的信心,促進區域產業鏈、供應鏈和價值鏈的融合,為亞太一體化和全球化鋪路。《中共中央關于制定國民經濟和社會發展第十四個五年規劃和二〇三五年遠景目標的建議》中提出,實施自由貿易區提升戰略,構建面向全球的高標準自由貿易區網絡。RCEP協定的簽署只是一個起點,后RCEP時代,中日韓自貿區打造成更高標準的“RCEP+”,中國積極嘗試加入CPTPP,都將使中國朝著建設亞太經濟共同體的目標邁進。中國還積極推動覆蓋21個APEC成員國的亞太自由貿易區(FTAAP)建設,一系列行動彰顯了中國利用高標準自由貿易協定,發展新一輪高水平開放型經濟的決心。

        yataijingjiyitihuadekuaisufazhan,dafutigaolequyuneiguojiazhijiandemaoyitouzibianlihuaheziyouhuashuiping,yegeigaiquyudeshenruhezuodailaixindewentihetiaozhan。yifangmian,yataidiquziyoumaoyixiedingdezhiliangpubianjiaodi,chuantongdemaoyixiedingzhuzhongjiejueguanshuidengguanjingzhijiandemaoyibileiwenti,dansuizhugeguoguanshuikejianrangfududejianxiao,jinnianlaidemaoyixiedingkaishizhuanxiangbianjinghoubileiwenti,zhujianshejidaochengyuanguodeguoneiguizhi,geguodebijiaoyoushikaishizhujianxiangzhiduyoushiqingxie。lingyifangmian,suizhumaoyixiedingshuliangdezengjia,yinzhidezhuyaowentishishichangzhunruqishidefanlan,jiquebaochengyuanguoziyoumaoyidetongshi,yedaozhileduifeichengyuanguodemaoyibaohu,yijixiedingzhijianbutongmaoyibileihemaoyiguizedejiaochazhongdie,xingchenglepangencuojiedemaoyixiedingwangluo。quyuneicuozongfuzademaoyixiedingtongguoduishangpinguojideqishishideguojimaoyibiandehunluan,youqishiqizhongdeyuanchandiguize,kenenghuizengjiashengchanwangluodezhengchangyunxingchengben。ruhezhenghehezhonggouyataidiquxianyoudemaoyixieding,zaigengdafanweineicujinchanyefengongdeshenhuahequyujiazhilianderonghe,shiweilaicujingaiquyujingjiyitihuafazhandezuizhongyaoyiti。

        hanjianhexuyayunfabiaozai《zhongguogongyejingji》2021niandi7qidelunwen《rcepjiyataiquyumaoyixiedingzhenghe——jiyuxiedingwenbendelianghuayanjiu》,jiangjisuanjiwenbenshujuwajuejishu、yinlimoxingjinhelianghuamaoyimoxingyingyongdaoyataiquyujingjiyitihuadeyanjiuzhong,fenxileyataidiquziyoumaoyixiedingwangluoyanbiandetezhengshishi,shizhengjianyanlebutongshenduftadejingjixiaoying,monileyataidiqubutonglujingxiamaoyixiedingzhenghedeqianzaishouyi。

        tongguoshuliyataidiqumaoyixiedingdetezhengshishifaxian,yataidiqugeguozhijiandemaoyixiedingwangluodefuzachengduyuangaoyushijiezhengtishuiping,shulianghezhiliangzaigeguodefenbubingbupingjun,maoyiguizesuipianhuawentiyanzhong,danshigeguodejingmaohezuozaibuduanjiaqiang,zaiguojimaoyiguizeshangdeyitihuachengdubuduantigao, rcepdechenggongqianshu,duiquyuneiyiyoudeduogexiedingqidaoleyidingdezhengheheyouhuashengjizuoyong。tongguoshiyonghuiguidedaodeftamaoyixiaoying,zhenduiyataidiquftabutongzhenghelujingdemoniyucefaxian,shendurcepyouzhuzhenghe、shengjiquyuneizhongduomaoyixiedingdezuoyong,qishengxiaoduichengyuanguodeqianzaiyingxiangcongdadaoxiaoyiciweizhongguo、riben、hanguo、aodaliyahexinxilan、dongmeng。zhongguoyiyouxiedingdeziyouhuashuipingxiangduijiaodi,zhihouyuhuobanguojianmaoyitouzidefazhanjincheng,errcepxiedingzaishendushangdedafutisheng,wuyihuijinyibuzengjinzhongguoyuchengyuanguodejingmaolianxi。

        weilaiyataidiquftadezhenghecunzaiduozhongkexinglujing,butonglujingxiayuneichengyuanhuodedeqianzaishouyibutong,qiesuizhuxiedingshendudezengjiaertigao。qizhong,zhongguobanyanzhuburonghushidejiaose。zhongrihansanguoweilaiqianshugaoshuipingftadekenengxinggengda,yuqinengzaircepdejichushangjinyibucujinsanguojiandejingmaowanglai。dangqianzhongguojiarucptppyouzhujijideneibudongliheyoulidewaibutiaojian,jiangweibenguojixianyouchengyuanguodailaijudadejingjiliyi。cptppchengyuandaduoshuweifadajingjiti,zhongguoyuqizhongderiben、jianada、moxigeshangweiqianshugaoshuipingfta,zhongguodecanyuyouliyuxingchenglianghaodechanyelianbihuan,zhutuibenguochanyelianxiangzhonggaoduanzhuanyi,jiangdafuzengjiaquyuneihuobanguodechukou。zhongmeilianggedaguocanyucptppdoujiangtigaochengyuanguodeshouyi,danzhongguodejiarugeichengyuanguodailaidezhengmianyingxianggengda,jihuchaochumeiguozhongfanyataideyingxiangdeyibeizhiduo。yibanjunhengfenxibiaoming,rcepyuqijiangcujinjuedaduoshuchengyuanguodemingyigdpzengchang,qizhongduizhongguodezhengmianyingxiangzuida,erduiyufeichengyuanguodegdpzengchangyouyidingdefumianzuoyong,qizhongduitongshuyuyataidiqudeyinduhemeiguofumianyingxianggengda。

        benwenweiyataiquyujingjiyitihuazhenghezhongdezuijialujingxuanze,tigongleyixiazhongyaodejingyanzhengjuhezhengceqishi:

        diyi,zaiguojicengmian,yingjiakuaiduixianyouzimaoxiedingdeshengjitanpan,anzhaogenggaobiaozhunjinxingshengji,tigaoziyoumaoyiqudekaifangshuiping。canyugenggaobiaozhundeziyoumaoyixiedingtanpan,yuzhongyaohuobanguokaizhanshuangbiantanpan,tuozhanziyoumaoyiquwangluodefugaifanwei;changshizaidachengqiancengcixiedinghouzhubushenhuahetuozhanxinyiti,zhubujieshouyushixingguojigaobiaozhun、gaozhiliangmaoyitouziguize,jijikaolvjiarucptpp,yongyudandangyataiquyujingjiyitihuadeyinlingzhe。zaiguoneicengmian,zhongguoyingjijiwanshanguoneixiangguanlifahezhunze,nuliyugaobiaozhunmaoyiguojiguizejiegui,duimuqianyixiebufuheguojiguanlidelingyujinxingshenrugaige,jiakuaitigaozhiduxingkaifangshuiping,jutibaokuo: shenrushishiguoyouqiyegaige,diaozhengchanyebutie,jianquanxiandaiqiyezhidu;fangkuanshichangzhunru,cujingongpingjingzheng,baohuzhishichanquan,jianshetongyidashichang,yingzaoyouzhiyingshanghuanjing;dalitishengguoneijianguannengliheshuiping,wanshananquanshenchajizhi,zhongshiyunyongguojitongxingguizeweihuguojiaanquan;dalifazhanshuzijingji,jiadaxinxingjichusheshitouzilidu。ciwai,huanyingjiaqiangduilaogongdebaohu、wanshanhuanjingbaohuyuzhilifalvdeng。

        dier,zaijingmaolianxijinmidanguizelianxizhihoudeshaoshuguojiahuodiquzhijiankeyilvxianshixianhezuo。zhongguo、riben、hanguozuowei“dongyaqiji”dedaibiao,tongguomaoyikuozhangdaidongguoneichanyejiegouzhuanxingshengji,baochilejingjichixugaosudefazhan。zaidangqianquanqiujingjibuquedingxingzengjia、yataiquyumaoyitouziguizeriyisuipianhuabeijingxia,zhongrihansanguodouzaijijixunqiuguangfandequyuxingjingjihezuolaishixiangengdachengdukaifangyiduichongmaoyibaohu,zhejiuxuyaosanguozaiquyumaoyiguizezhidingyuhezuoshangchongfenfahuibaorongxingyulinghuoxing,tongguoquyuchuangxinliandehezuocujinquyujiazhiliandeshenduronghe,gongtongtuijinyataiyitihuajincheng。jiujutineirongeryan,kecanzhaocptppdexianyoutiaokuanjinxingtanpan,zaihuowumaoyi、fuwumaoyi、touzidenglingyushishizuidachengdudekaifang,yunxubushishilingguanshuidexiangmu(runongchanpin),huoyanchangchexiaoguanshuideqixian,geigeguoyidingdehuanchongshijian,duiyubianjiehouguize(ruzhishichanquan、laogonghehuanjing),yingzunzhonggefangguoneifalv,fenjieduanzhubushixiangaobiaozhunguize。duiyuduanqineiwufaxiediaodelingyu,kezaikaolvzhengtiliyidejichushangjiangqizuoweiliwaitiaokuanyihouzaixingchuli,youxianshixiangaobiaozhundejieduanxingfta。

        disan,bangzhuqiyeliyongrcepxiedingleijiguizezengjiacaigoudexuanzexinghelinghuoxing、jiangdicaigouchengben,youhuaqiyequyuneigongyinglian、chanyelianbuju,dazaozizhukekonganquandechanyelian。rcepjiangdongyafuzadeftawangluonaruletongyideduobianziyoumaoyikuangjia,zaizhenghe、youhuaquyuneimaoyiguizeshangqudelehendajinbu,zaicujindongyaxunhuanzhongzhichengguojixunhuan,zheyeyiweizhumaoyicujinbumenxuyaoweiqiyetigongrcepxiedingquyugongyinglianhejiazhiliandajianfuwu,jiaqiangduiqiyedeyuanchandiguizepeixun,qiyezishenxuyaojiaqiangduircepzhengcedezhuizongyuxuexi,jinertigaorcepdeshijiliyonglv。duiyuweilaiyataimaoyixiedingdezhenghelujing,keyijinyibutuijinrcepyouhuashengji,tuidongrcepyucptppzaiguizeshangderonghe。changqilaikan,jiansheyataizimaoqu(ftaap),youliyuzhenghequyuneisuipianhuademaoyitouziguize,shixianyataiquyuyitihuadegaoshuipingkaifangheshenduronghe。

 

(yishangneirongjindaibiaozuozhebenrenguandian)


zuozhe: hanjian,xuyayun

yuanwenkanfa: 《zhongguogongyejingji》2021niandi7qi,《rcepjiyataiquyumaoyixiedingzhenghe——jiyuxiedingwenbendelianghuayanjiu》