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賈鵬飛、范從來、褚劍: 過度借貸的負外部性與最優宏觀審慎政策設計

發布時間: 2021-04-19

研究背景 

       jingdiandezhaiwu-tongsuolilunrenwei,guodufuzhaibuliyujingjizengchang,danggangganlvchaoguohelixiandu,kenengzaochengjingjixianru“zhaiwu-tongsuo”deexingxunhuan,jineryinfayanzhongdejingjishuaitui。2008nianguojijinrongweijibaofadeyigezhongyaoyuanyinzhengshijinrongtixideguodugangganhua。daliangdejingyanyanjiuzongjiezhichu,xindaikuaisuzengchanghegangganlvjijushangshengtongchangshijinrongweijibaofadexianxingzhibiao。jinnianlai,zhongguojingjidegangganlvbuduanpansheng,genjuguojiqingsuanyinxingdecesuan,qicong2008niande139.00%kuaisuzengzhi2019niande258.70%,zhezaochengfengxianbuduanleiji,weixiejingjijinrongwending,duijingjichangqizengchanggouchengyali。yinci,zaishenhuagonggeicejiegouxinggaige、fangfanhuajiezhongdafengxiandedangxia,ruhetongguohelidezhengceshejiyiyouxiaoyingduishitijingjigaoganggan、weihujingjijinrongwendingchengweizhongyaodeyanjiuyiti。

       2008nianguojijinrongweijidebaofashide“hongguanshenshen”beishouzhengcejiehexueshujiedeguanzhu。jinrongweijidejiaoxunbiaoming,yiwendingwujiashuipingweihexindehuobizhengcebuzuyibaozhengjinrongyijihongguanjingjidewending。yinci,zaihoujinrongweijishidai,geguofenfenyinruhongguanshenshenzhengceyidiyuxitongxingfengxian。zaibasaierxieyiiiidezhidaoxia,baokuozhongguozaineideshijiegeguozhengfukaishigoujianbingwanshannizhouqidejinronghongguanshenshenguanlizhidukuangjia(zhouxiaochuan,2011),yiqichulihaocujinjinrongtixiwendingyugaishanjinrongtixixiaolv、hongguanshenshenguanliyuweiguanshenshenjianguanjihuobizhengce、hongguanshenshenguanliyuhuijibiaozhunzhijiandeguanxi,zheduiyuyunpingjingjizhouqixingbodong、fangfanxitongxingfengxian、weihujinrongwending、tishengjinrongzhichijingjizengchangdekechixuxingjuyouzhongyaodexianshiyiyi。

       dangqian,zhongguojingjizhengchuyujiegoudiaozhenghezhuanxingshengjideguanjianshiqi,jinrongtixibuwendingyinsuzengjia,jinrongwendingmianlinzhuduotiaozhan。duici,2016nianzhongguorenminyinxingjianliqijinrongjigou“hongguanshenshenpinggutixi”,wanshanlehongguanshenshenguanlikuangjia;2017nianjinrongwendingfazhanweiyuanhuichengli,jinrongjianguanxiediaodedaolejiaqiang,《shijiudabaogao》zhengshitichu“jianquanhuobizhengcehehongguanshenshenzhengceshuangzhizhudiaokongkuangjia”,tongshi“fangfanhuajiezhongdafengxian”zuoweisandagongjianzhanzhishouyebeimingquetichu,tongnianzhaokaidezhongyangjingjigongzuohuiyijinyibuzhichu“dahaofangfanhuajiezhongdafengxiangongjianzhan,zhongdianshifangkongjinrongfengxian”。suizhuhongguanshenshenzhengcezaiwoguojingjijinronglingyudeshenruguancheheshishi,xueshujieduihongguanshenshenzhengcedeyouxiaoxingyijiyuqitajingjizhengcedexiediaopeihedengzhongyaowentijinxinglezhuduotantao。

  

 

zhuyaoguandian

       benwenjiyuguodujiedaifuwaibuxingdeshijiao,dui“guodujiedai-fuwaibuxing-shichangshiling-zhengfuganyu-zuiyouhongguanshenshenzhengce”delilunjizhijinxinglexitongchanshi,bingqieyoucishuzhimonilezuiyouhongguanshenshenzhengcejiqiduihongguanjingjideyingxiang。benwentongguojianliyibanjunhengmoxingjinxingyanjiu,faxianwuzhengceganyuxiajiekuanrendeguodujiedaixingweihuichanshengyanzhongdefuwaibuxing,daozhijingjixianrujiedaiyueshushoujin、xiaofeijianshao、zichanjiagexiadiedeexingxunhuan,zuizhongjiajujinrongweijidefasheng;erzhengfukeyitongguohongguanshenshenzhengceganyujiekuanrendeguodujiedaixingwei,dangjiedaishuipingdadaoshehuizuiyoushi,hongguanshenshenzhengceyejiushixianlezuiyousheji。zaicijichushang,shuzhimonibiaoming,zuiyouhongguanshenshenzhengcekeyidadajiangdijinrongweijifashengdegailvyijijinrongweijiduishitijingjideyingxiangchengdu。

       zaidangqianshitijingji,youqishiqiyebumenhejiatingbumengaoganggankenengweijijingjijinrongwendingdedabeijingxia,benwendeyanjiuduiyuzhengcedangjuyouxiaozhidinghongguanshenshenzhengceyifangfanhuajiezhongdafengxianjuyouzhongyaodelilunqishi。shouxian,zaishenhuagonggeicejiegouxinggaigezhong,yaoyijiegouxingqugangganweijibensilu,genjubutongdebumen、zhaiwuleixingtichubutongyaoqiu,zaiqiyebumenzhongzhongdianqiangdiaoguoyouqiyebumendequganggan,tongguoduiguoyou“jiangshi”qiyedengdaxingyouwentiqiyekaizhanfengxianjiance、wanshanjinrongjigoupingjiatixiyindaoxindaiziyuantouxiangxiaolvgenggaodelingyuhexingyedenghongguanshenshenzhengce,bingjieheshichanghuazhaizhuangu、hunhesuoyouzhigaigedengdetuijin,yiqidadaoqiyebumen,youqishiguoyouqiyebumenzhaiwufengxianhuajiedetongshishixianzhaiwuxiaolvdetisheng。qici,yingjianchiyihongguanshenshenshijiaomiqieguanzhujiatingbumendezhaiwubianhua,youqishiduiyujiatingbumenzaifangdichanlingyubuduanpanshengdegangganlv,xuyaozaizhixingyinxingyeminganxingyaliceshizhongduojiaguanzhufangdichandaikuanfengxian,zaiqianghua“yinchengshice”defangdichanhongguandiaokong、tuijin“zugoubingju”dengfangdichanlingyugonggeicegaigedetongshidajiliyongduanqixiaofeidaikuandengweiguijiagangganchaofangdetoujiluanxiang,jianchi“fangzishiyonglaizhude,bushiyonglaichaode”dingwei,weihufangdichanshichangdepingwenjiankangfazhan。youci,tongguoshenruguanchehongguanshenshenzhengce,nulishixianhongguangangganlvdewendinghezhubuxiajiang,congerfangfanhuajiezhongdafengxian、weihujingjijinrongwending。

 

 

yuanwenfabiaoyu《jingjiyanjiu》2021niandi3qi,cankaowenxianyinyongfanli: [1] jiapengfei,fanconglai,chujian:guodujiedaidefuwaibuxingyuzuiyouhongguanshenshenzhengcesheji[j/ol].jingjiyanjiu,2021(03):32-47